An aggressive Taiwanese air threat defense strategy could present a $3.3 billion opportunity for Raytheon Technologies’ Patriot missile defense battery.
China views Taiwan as a breakaway province to be reclaimed and has sent warships and aircraft to the Taiwan Strait, i.e., the 180-kilometer-wide sea between East Asia and Taiwan. China’s navy and air force are ~9x larger, and Taiwan must prepare to defend its sovereignty.
At a unit cost of ~$1.1 billion, Taiwan reportedly has 7 Patriot batteries. Countries in similar conflict-adjacent or geopolitical circumstances have batteries in the double digits. Japan, with its complex China relationship, has an estimated 44 Patriot batteries.
Newer Patriot batteries feature lighter, more agile missiles, improved radar ranges, and precise “hit-to-kill” technology. These upgrades make them suitable to counter the array of ballistic and cruise missiles China employs.
The threat of an invasion by China is a looming possibility. As the cost of doing nothing is too great, increasing its Patriot battery stock is necessary for Taiwan to preserve its sovereign identity.
End Notes:
- Global Patriot Solutions: https://www.rtx.com/raytheon/what-we-do/integrated-air-and-missile-defense/global-patriot-solutions
- Explainer: What is the Patriot missile defense system? https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/what-is-patriot-missile-defense-system-2022-12-21/
- US Army plans to grow Patriot missile defense force, Jen Judson, https://www.defensenews.com/land/2023/08/08/us-army-plans-to-grow-patriot-missile-defense-force/
- Missile Defense Project, “Patriot,” Missile Threat, Center for Strategic and International Studies, June 14, 2018, last modified August 23, 2023, https://missilethreat.csis.org/system/patriot/
- Congressional Research Service: https://crsreports.congress.gov/product/pdf/IF/IF12297
- PAC-2 vs PAC-3: Patriot Scorecard Mixed; PAC-3 Use Limited, https://www.armscontrol.org/act/2003-05/news/patriot-scorecard-mixed-pac-3-use-limited#:~:text=PAC%2D2%20missiles%20employ%20a,in%20a%20high%2Dspeed%20collision.
- NATO Member Nations, https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/topics_52044.htm
- France and Germany Are Beefing Over Air Defense Batteries: https://www.popularmechanics.com/military/weapons/a44287853/france-germany-dispute-mamba-air-defenses-ukraine/
- China and Taiwan: A really simple guide, https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-59900139
- Why U.S. Patriot missiles failed to stop drones and cruise missiles attacking Saudi oil sites, https://www.nbcnews.com/think/opinion/trump-sending-troops-saudi-arabia-shows-short-range-air-defenses-ncna1057461
- Taiwan reports record number of Chinese warships in waters around the island, https://www.cnn.com/2023/07/17/china/china-navy-warships-around-taiwan-intl-hnk-ml/index.html
- Ballistic Missile Basics, https://missiledefenseadvocacy.org/missile-threat-and-proliferation/missile-basics/ballistic-missile-basics/
- China’s Growing Missile Arsenal and the Risk of a “Taiwan Missile Crisis“, https://www.nti.org/analysis/articles/chinas-growing-missile-arsenal-and-the-risk-of-a-taiwan-missile-crisis/
- PLA Rocket Force Organization, https://www.airuniversity.af.edu/CASI/Display/Article/3193056/pla-rocket-force-organization/
- Cruise Missile Basics, https://missiledefenseadvocacy.org/missile-threat-and-proliferation/missile-basics/cruise-missile-basics/
- Hit to kill, Fact Sheet: US Ballistic Missile Defense, https://armscontrolcenter.org/fact-sheet-u-s-ballistic-missile-defense/#:~:text=While%20most%20interceptors%20are%20%E2%80%9Chit,payload%20in%20the%20incoming%20missile.
- [Only saw after final post was ready] Patriot missiles are an effective but expensive air defense system. Graphics show how they work, https://www.usatoday.com/story/graphics/2023/05/17/graphics-patriot-missiles-ukraine-russia/70227493007/